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 Technology Foresight
Technology foresight is regarded as the key element of the technology development process in any social community. It provides the inputs for shaping technology policies and making the strategies to underlie the development of the technological infrastructure and worldwide integration in this sphere. Furthermore, technology foresight makes for development of novel technologies, provides support to innovation and fosters technology-advancing incentives and assistance to enterprises in the domain of technology management transfer, which finally leads to enhanced competitiveness and accelerated industrial growth.

Unlike the Technology Forecasting method, the Technology Foresight approach is not about delivering mere probabilistic predictions of the future technologies; nor it is about anticipating the impacts and effects of future technologies in the society (which is appropriate of Forecasting Assessment). Rather, Technology Foresight is a systematic process based on the analysis of the trends about science, technology, industry, economy and society development in the long run, with the purpose of identifying the technologies that can generate economic and social benefits – on an enterprise scale and on industry/sector level, as well as on a national and international basis.

The main objective of the introduced resource is to help preparing the Belarusian community for technology foresight surveys in the country. This section highlights the primary objectives, aims and goals, challenges and tools of technology foresight. Here one can find some information about the subject-related software used in technology foresight surveys; there is a certain piece of knowledge regarding the organization framework and management of technology foresight research, too.

Manual "Technology Foresight Survey. Why Would Belarus Need It?" (in Russian)


Reports and Presentations Made at the International Seminar on Technology Foresight for the Republic of Belarus
Belarus, Minsk, 27 March, 2009
Agenda of the seminar
Presentations:
А. Sokolov, Director of the Foresight Centre with the Higher School of Economics (Russia) "Technology Foresight Surveys in Russia. Theory and Practice"
A. Markov, Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics under the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus "Prospects for Application of the Technology Foresight Approaches in the System of Long-Term Development Planning in Belarus"
V. Goncharov, Head of the Department for Innovative Development of Economy, the Institute of Economics under the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus "Technology Foresight Surveys for the Republic of Belarus. Aims, Goals, Organizational Arrangements"
O. Kobyak, Deputy Director of the Minsk Research Institute of Socioeconomic Problems, A. Shablovskiy, Principal Researcher of the Institute of Language and Literature under the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus "Expert Pool Formation Principles for Technology Foresight Surveys in Belarus"
A. Uspenskiy, Director of the Republican Centre for Technology Transfer "Capacities of RCTT for Assistance in Preparing and Organizing the Technology Foresight Survey in Belarus"
Dr.-Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca, Pilar Rodriguez-Ruiz (UNIDO) "Foresight for developing countries and economies in transition"
Dr.-Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca (UNIDO) "UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative"
Jack E. Smith (Director, S&T Foresight, Office of the National Science Advisor, Privy Council Office, Government of Canada) "Science and Technology Foresight: Provocateur for Innovation Policy?"
Mu Rongping, Ren Zhongbao (Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences) "Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China: the Practice and its Impacts"
Lectures on technology foresight delivered during the UNIDO-promoted training course “Technology Foresight for Organizers”
Gebze, Turkey, 20 – 24 November 2006

 ► An Introduction to Foresight, Dr. Michael Keenan PREST, University of Manchester, UK
 ► The Role of Foresight in Strategic Thinking and Policy Formation, Attila Havas Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences
 ► Technology Policy, Innovation System and Technology Foresight, Dr.-Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca, INVESTMENT AND TECHNOLOGY PROMOTION BRANCH UNIDO
 ► Some key elements of the Foresight process, Campbell WARDEN, European Association of Research Managers & Administration
 ► Foresight in Policy cycles: case of Romania, Campbell WARDEN, European Association of Research Managers & Administration, Adrian CURAJ, Executive Agency for Higher Education and Research Funding – Romania
 ► THE FUTURE OF THE FISHERY INDUSTRY. South American Pacific Coast, Dr.-Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca, INVESTMENT AND TECHNOLOGY PROMOTION BRANCH UNIDO
 ► Scope and Focus of Foresight Programmes, Attila Havas Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences
 ► Scope and Focus of Foresight Exercises – 2, Dr. Ozcan Saritas, The University of Manchester, UK
 ► Organising and Managing Foresight, Dr. Michael Keenan PREST, University of Manchester, UK
 ► S&T Strategies Vision 2023 (a project to build a science and technology vision for Turkey), PhD Serhat CAKIR, TUBITAK
 ► Overview of Foresight Methods, Dr. Michael Keenan PREST, University of Manchester, UK
 ► Tools for Generating Ideas and Options, Prof. Dr. T. Erkan TÜRE International University of Sarajevo
 ► Setting Priorities, Dr. Ozcan Saritas, The University of Manchester, UK
 ► Japanese Foresight Programme, PhD Kumi Okuwada, National Institute of Science and Technolojy Policy Japan
 ► The Latest Japanese Delphi, PhD Kumi Okuwada, National Institute of Science and Technolojy Policy Japan
 ► EXPERIENCE of TURKISH DELPHİ SURVEY, Prof.Dr. Haluk Geray, University of Ankara
 ► Scenario Planning, Dr. Ozcan Saritas, The University of Manchester, UK
 ► Understanding different Foresight techniques, Attila Havas Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences
 ► Regional Initiatives on Technology Foresight, Dr.-Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca, INVESTMENT AND TECHNOLOGY PROMOTION BRANCH UNIDO

UNIDO Technology Foresight Manual

 ► Volume 1 – Technology Foresight: Organization and Methods
  • Introduction
  • Module 1. Introduction to Technology Foresight
  • Module 2. Organizing a Technology Foresight Programme
  • Module 3. Technology Foresight Methods
 ► Volume 2 – Technology Foresight in Action
  • Introduction
  • Module 4. Technology Foresight at the National Level
  • Module 5. Technology Foresight at the Supranational Level
  • Module 6. Technology Foresight at the Subnational Regional Level
  • Module 7. Technology Foresight at the Company Level

Useful Links

 ► Technology Foresight in UNIDO
 ► UNIDO's Technology Foresight Initiative for Latin America
 ► UNIDO's Regional Initiative on Technology Foresight for Central and Eastern Europe and the Newly Independent States
 ► UNIDO Sepminars and Workshops on Technology Foresight
 ► Handouts and Reference Materials on Technology Foresight
 ► Technology Foresight in CORDIS
 ► UK Foresight Programme
 ► Technology Foresight in Czech Republic
 ► Technology roadmapping in Canada
 ► Technology roadmapping in Australia, Korea, USA
 ► OEM Roadmaps — lots of links to (mainly) sector roadmaps


Software

 ► Graphical Modelling System (GMS) — Free software for technology roadmapping


References

 ► US Department of Energy guide to applying science and technology roadmapping in environmental management (Draft), DoE-EM50, July 2000.
 ► Industry Canada – Technology roadmapping – a strategy for success, including a guide for government employees.
 ► Developing Long-term Strategies for Science and Technology in Australia
Findings of the Study: Matching Science and Technology to Future Needs 2010

 ► Proceedings of the International Conference on Technology Foresight


Any comments and replies would be welcome, if sent to ictt@pochta.ru.

  
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